{"format":1,"version":"1d40b37727a55a9d","methodVersion":"outcomes@1","domain":{"id":"housing-assistance","label":"Housing assistance","description":"HUD programs (Assistance Listings 14.xxx) and USDA rural housing (10.405–10.448): vouchers, rental assistance, public housing, community development; loans at subsidy cost. Mortgage insurance is left out.","measure":"obligations","shockFloorPerResident":100,"caveat":"Most housing money pays rents of existing homes; only part of it builds new ones.","sources":["usaspending-assistance"],"fiscalYears":[{"year":2021,"complete":true},{"year":2022,"complete":true},{"year":2023,"complete":true},{"year":2024,"complete":true},{"year":2025,"complete":true},{"year":2026,"complete":false},{"year":2027,"complete":false}]},"outcome":{"key":"market_rent","label":"Typical asking rent","shortLabel":"Asking rent","description":"Zillow Observed Rent Index: typical asking rent of listed homes and apartments. Published for larger rental markets only; no state-level series.","unit":"usd","decimals":0,"direction":"neutral","comparison":"percent","annualization":"december","source":"zillow","years":{"last":2025,"first":2015}},"pairing":{"domain":"housing-assistance","outcome":"market_rent","rationale":"Rental assistance and new subsidized units change the rental market.","lagYears":{"min":1,"max":2},"headlineYear":1,"caveat":"Zillow's rent index covers larger rental markets only, so fewer counties have it."},"finding":{"domain":"housing-assistance","outcome":"market_rent","comparison":"percent","headlineYear":1,"strength":"too-few","direction":null,"shocks":5,"result":{"estimate":-2.115168,"ciLow":-3.572898,"ciHigh":-0.109399},"placebo":{"estimate":-3.975796,"ciLow":-15.259518,"ciHigh":3.28826},"unmatched":69},"eventStudy":[{"relativeYear":-3,"shocks":5,"estimate":0.63113,"ciLow":-0.454924,"ciHigh":1.779962,"meanShockChange":-11.60909,"meanControlsChange":-12.24022},{"relativeYear":-2,"shocks":5,"estimate":0.445832,"ciLow":-0.911355,"ciHigh":1.777473,"meanShockChange":-3.284983,"meanControlsChange":-3.730815},{"relativeYear":-1,"shocks":5,"estimate":0,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"meanShockChange":0,"meanControlsChange":0},{"relativeYear":0,"shocks":5,"estimate":-0.647525,"ciLow":-2.067477,"ciHigh":0.772426,"meanShockChange":3.485445,"meanControlsChange":4.13297},{"relativeYear":1,"shocks":5,"estimate":-2.115168,"ciLow":-3.572898,"ciHigh":-0.109399,"meanShockChange":5.239817,"meanControlsChange":7.354985},{"relativeYear":2,"shocks":2,"estimate":-1.531012,"ciLow":-3.829075,"ciHigh":0.767051,"meanShockChange":13.928401,"meanControlsChange":15.459412}],"placebo":[{"relativeYear":0,"shocks":4,"estimate":-1.792941,"ciLow":-4.750065,"ciHigh":2.005945,"meanShockChange":11.181316,"meanControlsChange":12.974257},{"relativeYear":1,"shocks":4,"estimate":-3.975796,"ciLow":-15.259518,"ciHigh":3.28826,"meanShockChange":23.465073,"meanControlsChange":27.440869}],"shocks":[{"geoid":"12115","name":"Sarasota County, FL","fiscalYear":2024,"perResident":525.054153,"baselinePerResident":92.248483,"ratio":5.691738,"increasePerResident":432.80567,"controls":5,"headline":{"difference":-3.663439,"shockChange":-2.474632,"controlsMeanChange":1.188807,"outsideControlRange":false},"href":"/api/v1/outcomes/places/12115"},{"geoid":"13095","name":"Dougherty County, GA","fiscalYear":2023,"perResident":301.38787,"baselinePerResident":124.57161,"ratio":2.419395,"increasePerResident":176.81626,"controls":5,"headline":{"difference":-1.647485,"shockChange":10.476312,"controlsMeanChange":12.123797,"outsideControlRange":false},"href":"/api/v1/outcomes/places/13095"},{"geoid":"01089","name":"Madison County, AL","fiscalYear":2024,"perResident":214.756677,"baselinePerResident":94.576239,"ratio":2.270725,"increasePerResident":120.180438,"controls":5,"headline":{"difference":-3.178813,"shockChange":1.212193,"controlsMeanChange":4.391006,"outsideControlRange":true},"href":"/api/v1/outcomes/places/01089"},{"geoid":"18105","name":"Monroe County, IN","fiscalYear":2024,"perResident":182.793035,"baselinePerResident":78.268289,"ratio":2.335467,"increasePerResident":104.524747,"controls":5,"headline":{"difference":1.593296,"shockChange":8.991425,"controlsMeanChange":7.398129,"outsideControlRange":false},"href":"/api/v1/outcomes/places/18105"},{"geoid":"54061","name":"Monongalia County, WV","fiscalYear":2023,"perResident":133.758849,"baselinePerResident":29.558068,"ratio":4.525291,"increasePerResident":104.200781,"controls":5,"headline":{"difference":-3.679399,"shockChange":7.993785,"controlsMeanChange":11.673185,"outsideControlRange":true},"href":"/api/v1/outcomes/places/54061"}],"excluded":{"singleRecipientSpike":45,"followsEarlierShock":11,"unmatched":69},"caveats":[{"id":"obligations","text":"Money is counted when the government commits it (obligations), not when it is paid out; a multi-year contract can be obligated at once."},{"id":"place-of-performance","text":"Money is placed where the work is performed or the program operates, which is not always where the jobs, workers or beneficiaries are."},{"id":"few-years","text":"Only a few fiscal years of money are loaded (see the coverage), so each comparison follows a place for one or two years after the money at most."},{"id":"small-samples","text":"Some comparisons rest on few places: read the number of places and the uncertainty range with every result."},{"id":"association","text":"These are comparisons, not proof of cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference."},{"id":"many-comparisons","text":"Many pairings and years are compared at once: by chance alone, about one clear difference in twenty can appear where there is none."},{"id":"matched-counties","text":"Each place is compared with similar counties in the same Census division that saw no comparable jump in money; similar is not identical."},{"id":"pairing","text":"Zillow's rent index covers larger rental markets only, so fewer counties have it."}],"sources":[{"id":"bea-regional","name":"Regional Economic Accounts","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County (CAINC1) and Regional Price Parities; counties mapped to metro areas with OMB Bulletin 23-01 delineations","homepage":"https://www.bea.gov/data/by-place-county-metro-local","vintage":"2024","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:50:03.389Z"},{"id":"bls-laus","name":"Local Area Unemployment Statistics","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics","homepage":"https://www.bls.gov/lau/","vintage":"2025","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:51:58.235Z"},{"id":"bls-qcew","name":"Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages","homepage":"https://www.bls.gov/cew/","vintage":"2026 Q1","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:54:22.947Z"},{"id":"census-bfs","name":"Business Formation Statistics","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics (county business applications)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/","vintage":"2026-10-01","loadedAt":"2026-10-01T15:51:40.026Z"},{"id":"census-bps","name":"Building Permits Survey","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (county files)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/","vintage":"2026-08","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T22:14:14.060Z"},{"id":"census-geo","name":"Cartographic Boundary Files, Gazetteer and metro delineations","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Cartographic Boundary Files and Gazetteer Files; 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