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VA","distance":0.755951}],"path":[{"relativeYear":-3,"year":2018,"shockValue":6.604229,"shockChange":-0.085939,"controlsMeanChange":-0.647504,"controlsMinChange":-1.186981,"controlsMaxChange":-0.296131,"controls":5,"difference":0.561565},{"relativeYear":-2,"year":2019,"shockValue":5.386746,"shockChange":-1.303422,"controlsMeanChange":-0.357862,"controlsMinChange":-2.230783,"controlsMaxChange":1.243747,"controls":5,"difference":-0.94556},{"relativeYear":0,"year":2021,"shockValue":4.407007,"shockChange":-2.283161,"controlsMeanChange":1.385608,"controlsMinChange":-0.047035,"controlsMaxChange":4.54408,"controls":5,"difference":-3.668769},{"relativeYear":1,"year":2022,"shockValue":5.633803,"shockChange":-1.056365,"controlsMeanChange":1.735083,"controlsMinChange":-1.852648,"controlsMaxChange":5.224086,"controls":5,"difference":-2.791448},{"relativeYear":2,"year":2023,"shockValue":5.320015,"shockChange":-1.370152,"controlsMeanChange":0.635283,"controlsMinChange":-2.775893,"controlsMaxChange":5.335567,"controls":5,"difference":-2.005435}],"headline":{"relativeYear":1,"year":2022,"shockValue":5.633803,"shockChange":-1.056365,"controlsMeanChange":1.735083,"controlsMinChange":-1.852648,"controlsMaxChange":5.224086,"controls":5,"difference":-2.791448,"outsideControlRange":false}}]},{"domain":"construction-contracts","geoid":"51047","fiscalYear":2022,"amount":41713612.12,"population":54315,"perResident":767.994332,"baselinePerResident":59.792738,"baselineYears":5,"ratio":12.844274,"increasePerResident":708.201593,"nextPerResident":492.022854,"persisted":true,"topRecipientShare":0.956662,"eligible":false,"exclusionReason":"follows-earlier-shock","name":"Culpeper County, VA","effects":null},{"domain":"construction-contracts","geoid":"51047","fiscalYear":2023,"amount":27190658.96,"population":55263,"perResident":492.022854,"baselinePerResident":177.826337,"baselineYears":6,"ratio":2.766873,"increasePerResident":314.196516,"nextPerResident":-20.018383,"persisted":false,"topRecipientShare":1,"eligible":false,"exclusionReason":"single-recipient-spike","name":"Culpeper County, VA","effects":null}],"caveats":[{"id":"obligations","text":"Money is counted when the government commits it (obligations), not when it is paid out; a multi-year contract can be obligated at once."},{"id":"place-of-performance","text":"Money is placed where the work is performed or the program operates, which is not always where the jobs, workers or beneficiaries are."},{"id":"few-years","text":"Only a few fiscal years of money are loaded (see the coverage), so each comparison follows a place for one or two years after the money at most."},{"id":"small-samples","text":"Some comparisons rest on few places: read the number of places and the uncertainty range with every result."},{"id":"association","text":"These are comparisons, not proof of cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference."},{"id":"many-comparisons","text":"Many pairings and years are compared at once: by chance alone, about one clear difference in twenty can appear where there is none."},{"id":"matched-counties","text":"Each place is compared with similar counties in the same Census division that saw no comparable jump in money; similar is not identical."}],"sources":[{"id":"bea-regional","name":"Regional Economic Accounts","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County (CAINC1) and Regional Price Parities; counties mapped to metro areas with OMB Bulletin 23-01 delineations","homepage":"https://www.bea.gov/data/by-place-county-metro-local","vintage":"2024","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:50:03.389Z"},{"id":"bls-laus","name":"Local Area Unemployment Statistics","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics","homepage":"https://www.bls.gov/lau/","vintage":"2025","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:51:58.235Z"},{"id":"bls-qcew","name":"Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics","attribution":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages","homepage":"https://www.bls.gov/cew/","vintage":"2026 Q1","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T21:54:22.947Z"},{"id":"census-bfs","name":"Business Formation Statistics","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics (county business applications)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/","vintage":"2026-10-01","loadedAt":"2026-10-01T15:51:40.026Z"},{"id":"census-bps","name":"Building Permits Survey","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (county files)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/","vintage":"2026-08","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T22:14:14.060Z"},{"id":"census-geo","name":"Cartographic Boundary Files, Gazetteer and metro delineations","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Cartographic Boundary Files and Gazetteer Files; OMB metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area delineations; American Community Survey 5-year population (city and county shares)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files/time-series/geo/cartographic-boundary.html","vintage":"2025","loadedAt":"2026-10-01T07:50:40.343Z"},{"id":"census-pep","name":"Population Estimates Program","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html","vintage":"2025","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T22:05:38.461Z"},{"id":"census-sahie","name":"Small Area Health Insurance Estimates","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/sahie.html","vintage":"2024","loadedAt":"2026-09-29T09:23:29.353Z"},{"id":"census-saipe","name":"Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","attribution":"U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)","homepage":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/saipe.html","vintage":"2024","loadedAt":"2026-09-29T09:23:19.832Z"},{"id":"usaspending-assistance","name":"Federal financial assistance transactions (Financial Assistance Broker Submission)","publisher":"U.S. Department of the Treasury, USAspending.gov","attribution":"USAspending.gov, prime award financial assistance transactions (FABS)","homepage":"https://www.usaspending.gov/download_center/award_data_archive","vintage":"2026-10-03","loadedAt":"2026-10-03T20:03:18.258Z"},{"id":"usaspending-contracts","name":"Federal contract transactions (Federal Procurement Data System)","publisher":"U.S. Department of the Treasury, USAspending.gov","attribution":"USAspending.gov, prime award contract transactions (FPDS)","homepage":"https://www.usaspending.gov/download_center/award_data_archive","vintage":"2026-10-03","loadedAt":"2026-10-03T19:05:51.224Z"},{"id":"zillow","name":"Zillow Home Value Index, Observed Rent Index and affordability","publisher":"Zillow Research","attribution":"Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and Zillow affordability data, Zillow Research, zillow.com/research/data","homepage":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/","vintage":"2026-08","loadedAt":"2026-09-30T22:06:10.720Z"}]}