Public money & outcomes
Some counties suddenly receive much more federal money per resident than before. Here we compare how those counties changed in the years that followed with similar counties that did not see a jump, and show how sure we are about each difference.
This is not cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference. A case is one county in one fiscal year in which its federal money per resident at least doubled compared with its own earlier average.
Comparisons with results
Each card compares one kind of money with one outcome. Open a card for the chart, the counties behind it and the placebo check.
- No clear difference
Federal contracts
Job growth
No clear difference in job growth in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.13 points; 95% range −0.18 to 0.45; 321 cases).
See the comparison: Job growth, Federal contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Contract work is done by local employees and suppliers. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Jobs are counted where the employer reports them, which may not be where the contract is performed.
- No clear difference
Federal contracts
Average weekly wage
No clear difference in average weekly wage in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.34%; 95% range −0.04 to 0.72; 318 cases).
See the comparison: Average weekly wage, Federal contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Contract jobs (engineering, manufacturing, services) often pay above the local average. A change could plausibly show 0–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- A change in the mix of jobs moves the average wage even when no one's pay changes.
- No clear difference
Federal contracts
Unemployment rate
No clear difference in unemployment rate in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.01 points; 95% range −0.07 to 0.04; 321 cases).
See the comparison: Unemployment rate, Federal contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Hiring for contract work can lower local unemployment. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Unemployment is measured where people live; contract workers may commute from other counties.
- Unreliable
Federal contracts
Personal income per capita
Unreliable: counties already differed before the money arrived, so this comparison cannot be read.
See the comparison: Personal income per capita, Federal contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Wages and business income from contracts add to residents' income. A change could plausibly show 0–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Income is counted where people live, and includes transfers and investment income unrelated to contracts.
- No clear difference
Construction contracts
Job growth
No clear difference in job growth in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.04 points; 95% range −0.31 to 0.44; 237 cases).
See the comparison: Job growth, Construction contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Construction projects hire workers for their duration. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Construction crews often come from outside the county and leave when the project ends.
- No clear difference
Construction contracts
New homes permitted
No clear difference in new homes permitted in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.15 per 1,000 people; 95% range −0.10 to 0.42; 241 cases).
See the comparison: New homes permitted, Construction contractsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Large projects can raise demand for housing near the site. A change could plausibly show 1–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Permits follow local zoning, interest rates and builders' plans far more than any single project.
- No clear difference
Contracts and grants
Job growth
No clear difference in job growth in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.16 points; 95% range −0.63 to 0.28; 221 cases).
See the comparison: Job growth, Contracts and grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Federal contracts and grants pay for local work and services. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Grants often replace other funding of the same services, so the net addition can be small.
- No clear difference
Contracts and grants
Unemployment rate
No clear difference in unemployment rate in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.01 points; 95% range −0.06 to 0.04; 219 cases).
See the comparison: Unemployment rate, Contracts and grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- More federally funded work can lower local unemployment. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Unemployment is measured where people live; funded jobs may be filled by commuters.
- No clear difference
Contracts and grants
Median household income
No clear difference in median household income in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.17%; 95% range −1.28 to 0.96; 153 cases).
See the comparison: Median household income, Contracts and grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Funded jobs and programs add to household income. A change could plausibly show 1–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Model-based county estimates: small year-to-year changes are within their margin of error.
- Unreliable
Contracts and grants
Poverty rate
Unreliable: counties already differed before the money arrived, so this comparison cannot be read.
See the comparison: Poverty rate, Contracts and grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Programs and jobs funded by federal money can lift incomes above the poverty line. A change could plausibly show 1–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Model-based county estimates: small year-to-year changes are within their margin of error.
- Consistent difference
Transportation grants
Job growth
Job growth 0.53 points higher in the year after, compared with similar counties (95% range 0.16 to 0.90; 313 cases).
See the comparison: Job growth, Transportation grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Road, transit and airport projects hire construction workers. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Grants are obligated when approved; construction and hiring can start years later.
- No clear difference
Transportation grants
New homes permitted
No clear difference in new homes permitted in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.06 per 1,000 people; 95% range −0.27 to 0.16; 311 cases).
See the comparison: New homes permitted, Transportation grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Better access can make building new homes nearby more attractive. A change could plausibly show 1–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Transportation projects take years to finish; effects on building usually take longer than the years available.
- Unreliable
Housing assistance
Typical home value
Unreliable: counties already differed before the money arrived, so this comparison cannot be read.
See the comparison: Typical home value, Housing assistanceWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Housing programs change demand for and supply of homes. A change could plausibly show 1–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Home values follow interest rates and regional markets; housing aid is small relative to the market.
- No clear difference
Housing assistance
New homes permitted
No clear difference in new homes permitted in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.14 per 1,000 people; 95% range −0.35 to 0.67; 69 cases).
See the comparison: New homes permitted, Housing assistanceWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Development grants and rural housing loans finance new homes. A change could plausibly show 0–2 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Most housing assistance pays rents of existing homes rather than building new ones.
- No clear difference
HHS grants
Uninsured residents (under 65)
No clear difference in uninsured residents (under 65) in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate −0.07 points; 95% range −0.44 to 0.32; 18 cases).
See the comparison: Uninsured residents (under 65), HHS grantsWhy this pairing, and what to keep in mind
- Why compare these
- Health center and outreach grants can help residents get coverage and care. A change could plausibly show 0–1 years after the money.
- Keep in mind
- Coverage depends mostly on Medicaid rules and employer insurance, set at the state and national level.
Not enough cases yet
No county has had a clear jump in these kinds of money in the years loaded, or too few have. They are listed so nothing is hidden, and will get results as more fiscal years are loaded.
- Housing assistance
- SBA lending volume
How this works
The method is fixed in advance and is the same for every pairing: nothing is tuned to get a result.
The method in six steps
- Find the jumps. A county-year counts as a jump when the county has at least 10,000 residents and its federal money per resident is at least twice its earlier average, and higher by at least a fixed amount per resident for that kind of money.
- Leave out the misleading ones. A jump that comes from one single recipient (one large award), and jumps that follow an earlier jump, are not compared.
- Find similar counties. Each jump is matched with up to five counties in the same state or Census division with a similar trend before the jump, similar population and similar earlier money, and with no jump of their own.
- Measure the difference. For each year from three years before to two years after, we take how much the county changed since the year before the money (the base year), subtract how much its similar counties changed, and average over all jumps.
- Show the uncertainty. Every average comes with a 95% range from resampling the cases 2,000 times: if it includes zero, there is no clear difference.
- Check against a placebo. The same comparison is repeated dated three years earlier, before any of this money. If it finds a difference, the counties already differed, and the result is marked unreliable.
Money is counted by federal fiscal year (October to September, named by the year it ends). Outcomes are calendar years. A fiscal year is compared with the calendar year of the same number, so the money of FY2024 (from October 2023) is followed by the outcome of 2025, the year after.
How to read the labels
Every result carries one label about how much weight it can bear:
- Not enough cases
- Too few counties have had a jump in this money to read a result.
- Unreliable
- The same comparison, dated before any money arrived, also found a difference: the counties already differed, so this result cannot be read.
- No clear difference
- The uncertainty range includes no difference at all.
- Suggestive difference
- The range excludes zero, but from a modest number of cases: a hint, not a finding.
- Consistent difference
- The range excludes zero across many cases. Still a comparison, not proof of cause.
A result needs at least 10 cases to be read, and at least 30 for the label consistent.
What to keep in mind
- Money is counted when the government commits it (obligations), not when it is paid out; a multi-year contract can be obligated at once.
- Money is placed where the work is performed or the program operates, which is not always where the jobs, workers or beneficiaries are.
- Only a few fiscal years of money are loaded (see the coverage), so each comparison follows a place for one or two years after the money at most.
- Some comparisons rest on few places: read the number of places and the uncertainty range with every result.
- These are comparisons, not proof of cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference.
- Many pairings and years are compared at once: by chance alone, about one clear difference in twenty can appear where there is none.
- Each place is compared with similar counties in the same Census division that saw no comparable jump in money; similar is not identical.
Limits. The comparison cannot rule out other events in the same places and years, and many pairings are compared at once. Treat it as a reason to look closer, never as proof.
Money covered
Fiscal years of money loaded, the years in which a jump can be assessed, and what happened to the candidates.
| Money | Loaded fiscal years | Years assessed | Candidates | Compared | Left out: one recipient | Left out: earlier jump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal contractsObligations | FY2017–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2018–FY2024 | 631 | 329 | 206 | 96 |
| Construction contractsObligations | FY2017–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2018–FY2024 | 581 | 260 | 250 | 71 |
| Contracts and grantsObligations | FY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2022–FY2024 | 407 | 232 | 149 | 26 |
| Transportation grantsObligations | FY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2022–FY2024 | 925 | 328 | 572 | 25 |
| Housing assistanceObligations | FY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2022–FY2024 | 131 | 74 | 45 | 12 |
| HHS grantsObligations | FY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2022–FY2024 | 85 | 53 | 29 | 3 |
| SBA lending volumeLoan face value | FY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial) | FY2022–FY2024 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
Sources and vintages
Every value on these pages comes from one of these sources, for the period shown with it.
- Regional Economic AccountsU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · release 2024 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
- Local Area Unemployment StatisticsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · release 2025 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
- Quarterly Census of Employment and WagesU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · release 2026 Q1 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
- Business Formation StatisticsU.S. Census Bureau · release 2026-10-01 · loaded Oct 1, 2026
- Building Permits SurveyU.S. Census Bureau · release 2026-08 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
- Cartographic Boundary Files, Gazetteer and metro delineationsU.S. Census Bureau · release 2025 · loaded Oct 1, 2026
- Population Estimates ProgramU.S. Census Bureau · release 2025 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
- Small Area Health Insurance EstimatesU.S. Census Bureau · release 2024 · loaded Sep 29, 2026
- Small Area Income and Poverty EstimatesU.S. Census Bureau · release 2024 · loaded Sep 29, 2026
- Federal financial assistance transactions (Financial Assistance Broker Submission)U.S. Department of the Treasury, USAspending.gov · release 2026-10-03 · loaded Oct 3, 2026
- Federal contract transactions (Federal Procurement Data System)U.S. Department of the Treasury, USAspending.gov · release 2026-10-03 · loaded Oct 3, 2026
- Zillow Home Value Index, Observed Rent Index and affordabilityZillow Research · release 2026-08 · loaded Sep 30, 2026
The results were computed Oct 3, 2026 with method outcomes@1. Read the data as JSON (API docs)