Federal contracts

Average weekly wage after a jump in federal contracts

The chart shows, year by year, how much more (or less) average weekly wage changed in counties whose money jumped than in similar counties. Year 0 is the calendar year in which the money's fiscal year ended; change is measured from the year before (−1).

This is not cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference.

What the comparison found

No clear difference

No clear difference in average weekly wage in the year after, compared with similar counties (estimate +0.34%; 95% range −0.04 to 0.72; 318 cases).

The uncertainty range includes no difference at all.

Why compare these
Contract jobs (engineering, manufacturing, services) often pay above the local average. A change could plausibly show 0–2 years after the money.
Keep in mind
A change in the mix of jobs moves the average wage even when no one's pay changes.

Difference by year

Difference by year

Difference in change (%)
−0.5%0.0%+0.5%+1.0%−3318−2318base year−10318+0.34%+1318+2275Cases

Years from the money's year (0 = calendar year the fiscal year ends)

Placebo check

Before the money
−0.5%0.0%+0.5%+1.0%0244+1244Cases

The same method dated 3 years earlier, before any of this money. It should find nothing: if it finds a difference, the counties already differed and the result cannot be read.

Each dot is the average difference in change between counties whose money jumped and their comparison counties; the line is the 95% range. The number under each year is how many cases it rests on.

Table view
Difference in change by year, with the 95% range and the number of cases
YearCasesDifference95% rangeJump counties, average changeComparison counties, average change
−3318+0.07%−0.04 to 0.17−7.6%−7.6%
−2318+0.05%−0.15 to 0.24−4.0%−4.1%
−1base year—0.00%———
0318+0.24%0.01 to 0.48+4.8%+4.5%
+1318+0.34%−0.04 to 0.72+9.6%+9.3%
+2275+0.11%−0.37 to 0.59+14.7%+14.6%
Table view · Placebo check
Placebo check
YearCasesDifference95% rangeJump counties, average changeComparison counties, average change
0244+0.23%−0.10 to 0.58+4.6%+4.3%
+1244+0.19%−0.27 to 0.69+9.2%+9.0%

Left out of this comparison

Counties are excluded by rules fixed in advance, not by looking at results.

  • 206 jumps where one recipient accounted for most of the increase (a single large award, not a broad rise).
  • 96 jumps that follow an earlier jump, so the comparison years overlap.
  • 11 jumps without an outcome history or without close comparison counties.

The counties behind this result

Each row is one county in one fiscal year, with the money per resident that year against its own earlier average, and how its outcome changed compared with its similar counties in the headline year.

The counties behind this result
Spotsylvania County, VAFY2023$161,645$32,2615×5−3.4%Outside
Radford city, VAFY2024$60,905$19,1933.2×5−2.4%Outside
Reeves County, TXFY2021$33,607$3,22210×4+8.4%Outside
Tioga County, NYFY2020$37,988$10,1293.8×5+0.97%Inside
La Crosse County, WIFY2024$32,046$4,4697.2×5−0.31%Inside
Marinette County, WIFY2020$19,329$53836×5−0.99%Inside
Meade County, SDFY2024$20,081$7,7302.6×2+1.8%Inside
Accomack County, VAFY2023$16,295$4,5603.6×5−2.8%Inside
Taylor County, FLFY2023$12,893$2,3055.6×5−7.3%Outside
Bay County, FLFY2022$13,902$5,4472.6×5−5.3%Outside
Kodiak Island Borough, AKFY2022$14,593$6,1412.4×3+9.5%Outside
Hoke County, NCFY2018$10,761$2,6594×5−4.9%Outside
Maui County, HIFY2024$7,958$24033×5−0.49%Inside
Berkeley County, SCFY2023$9,051$1,6675.4×5+3.1%Outside
Starr County, TXFY2019$7,498$31824×5+2.5%Inside
Onslow County, NCFY2020$11,119$4,4612.5×5+1.1%Inside
Mineral County, WVFY2024$11,452$5,0682.3×5+6.6%Outside
Manassas city, VAFY2023$9,019$2,7623.3×5+2.1%Outside
Montgomery County, PAFY2024$8,106$1,9764.1×5+0.59%Inside
Spotsylvania County, VAFY2020$7,370$1,2945.7×5+3.9%Inside
West Baton Rouge Parish, LAFY2022$8,906$2,9073.1×5+2.6%Inside
Craven County, NCFY2020$8,455$2,5823.3×5−2.6%Outside
Oglala Lakota County, SDFY2023$7,932$2,0703.8×5+0.45%Inside
Cowley County, KSFY2022$8,096$2,3483.4×5−4.4%Outside
McCreary County, KYFY2024$7,371$1,6874.4×5−2.6%Inside

How this works

The method is fixed in advance and is the same for every pairing: nothing is tuned to get a result.

The method in six steps

  1. Find the jumps. A county-year counts as a jump when the county has at least 10,000 residents and its federal money per resident is at least twice its earlier average, and higher by at least a fixed amount per resident for that kind of money.
  2. Leave out the misleading ones. A jump that comes from one single recipient (one large award), and jumps that follow an earlier jump, are not compared.
  3. Find similar counties. Each jump is matched with up to five counties in the same state or Census division with a similar trend before the jump, similar population and similar earlier money, and with no jump of their own.
  4. Measure the difference. For each year from three years before to two years after, we take how much the county changed since the year before the money (the base year), subtract how much its similar counties changed, and average over all jumps.
  5. Show the uncertainty. Every average comes with a 95% range from resampling the cases 2,000 times: if it includes zero, there is no clear difference.
  6. Check against a placebo. The same comparison is repeated dated three years earlier, before any of this money. If it finds a difference, the counties already differed, and the result is marked unreliable.

Money is counted by federal fiscal year (October to September, named by the year it ends). Outcomes are calendar years. A fiscal year is compared with the calendar year of the same number, so the money of FY2024 (from October 2023) is followed by the outcome of 2025, the year after.

How to read the labels

Every result carries one label about how much weight it can bear:

Not enough cases
Too few counties have had a jump in this money to read a result.
Unreliable
The same comparison, dated before any money arrived, also found a difference: the counties already differed, so this result cannot be read.
No clear difference
The uncertainty range includes no difference at all.
Suggestive difference
The range excludes zero, but from a modest number of cases: a hint, not a finding.
Consistent difference
The range excludes zero across many cases. Still a comparison, not proof of cause.

A result needs at least 10 cases to be read, and at least 30 for the label consistent.

What to keep in mind

  • Money is counted when the government commits it (obligations), not when it is paid out; a multi-year contract can be obligated at once.
  • Money is placed where the work is performed or the program operates, which is not always where the jobs, workers or beneficiaries are.
  • Only a few fiscal years of money are loaded (see the coverage), so each comparison follows a place for one or two years after the money at most.
  • Some comparisons rest on few places: read the number of places and the uncertainty range with every result.
  • These are comparisons, not proof of cause and effect: other events in the same places and years can explain a difference.
  • Many pairings and years are compared at once: by chance alone, about one clear difference in twenty can appear where there is none.
  • Each place is compared with similar counties in the same Census division that saw no comparable jump in money; similar is not identical.
  • A change in the mix of jobs moves the average wage even when no one's pay changes.

Limits. The comparison cannot rule out other events in the same places and years, and many pairings are compared at once. Treat it as a reason to look closer, never as proof.

Money covered

Fiscal years of money loaded, the years in which a jump can be assessed, and what happened to the candidates.

Money covered
MoneyLoaded fiscal yearsYears assessedCandidatesComparedLeft out: one recipientLeft out: earlier jump
Federal contractsObligationsFY2017–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2018–FY202463132920696
Construction contractsObligationsFY2017–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2018–FY202458126025071
Contracts and grantsObligationsFY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2022–FY202440723214926
Transportation grantsObligationsFY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2022–FY202492532857225
Housing assistanceObligationsFY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2022–FY2024131744512
HHS grantsObligationsFY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2022–FY20248553293
SBA lending volumeLoan face valueFY2021–FY2026FY2026 (partial)FY2022–FY202410820

Sources and vintages

Every value on these pages comes from one of these sources, for the period shown with it.

The results were computed Oct 3, 2026 with method outcomes@1. Read the data as JSON (API docs)

JSON · /api/v1/outcomes/effects

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